Applications of Risk and Simulation Modelling for Oil and Gas Industry
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Applications of Risk and Simulation Modelling for Oil and Gas Industry Course
Introduction:
Uncertainty and risk are natural components of the oil and gas industry, spanning both upstream and downstream operations. Critical decisions related to significant investments in asset acquisitions, explorations, appraisals, drilling, field development, equipment procurement, fiscal negotiations, cost estimation, and capital investment planning all require quantitative support. This includes assessing the impact of various risks and uncertainties.
Our course, "Applications of Risk & Simulation Modelling for the Oil & Gas Industry," is specifically designed to equip participants with the skills and techniques necessary to model and analyze risk and uncertainty in real-world scenarios. By attending this course, you will gain valuable knowledge and practical experience in employing risk and simulation modeling methods relevant to the oil and gas industry.
Course Objectives:
- Gain knowledge of Key Modelling Applications of Risk & Uncertainty Assessment
- To gain knowledge of key modelling in risk assessment by learning the modelling requirements of risk simulation methods
- Recognize The Importance & Situations in Risk Analysis & Modelling
- To learn the objectives, processes and approaches to risk assessment for better understanding of the use and benefits of risk modelling
- Develop Key Concepts To Quantify & Measure Risk
- To develop key concepts required to quantify and measure risk and uncertainty by using @RISK to avoid misleading result gained from the reality forecasting results
- Learn The Modelling Requirements & Issues in Building Risk Models
- To learn the modelling requirements and issues occur in risk model building to have more precise uncertainty results and make better analysis and decisions
- Differentiate Risk Models Built by Using Variety Approaches
- Manage to differentiate and build advanced risk models using Excel, VBA (MACROS), @RISK and understand the use and benefits of each approach
Who Should Attend?
People who are involved in Business & Strategic Planning, Development & Commercial and Budgeting & Forecasting to provide quantitative support in decision making.
- Business & Strategic Planners
- Planning, Development & Commercial Analysts
- Budgeting & Forecasting Staffs
- Financial Analysts
- Petroleum Economists
- Risk Managers
- Business Analyst
Course Outlines:
Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty Analysis and Modelling
- Introduction
- Links between sensitivities, risks and optimization
- Hands-on exercises,
- Moving from sensitivities, combinations and probabilities to risk analysis
- Modelling requirements of simulation methods e.g.
- Hands-on exercises
Further Hands-On Exercises with VBA and an Introduction to @RISK
- Further Excel and VBA modelling techniques for simulation modelling
- Hands-on exercises:
- Limitations of pure Excel/VBA approaches; the benefits of Excel-add-ins Overview, demo and introduction to @RISK
- Hands-on exercises with @RISK
- Q&A session
Hands-on Exercises using @RISK in Oil and Gas Applications
- Hands-on exercises:
- Open discussion and hands-on modelling of participants’ potential modelling applications (time permitting)
User-defined Functions, Simulation and Optimization
- Hands-on exercises in optimization:
- Hands-on exercises in real options:
- Modelling decision trees
- Hands-on exercises in decision tree modelling
Practical Cases