Plant Reliability: Prediction, Analysis and Modelling

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Plant Reliability: Prediction, Analysis and Modelling Course
Introduction:
Course Objectives:
By the end of the course, participants will be able to:
- Explore and understand the power contained in maintenance history records (failure data), and how this can be harnessed using statistical approaches to improve maintenance (and hence overall plant) performance
- Analyse failure data using a range of first principles and industry-standard methods, all implemented in Microsoft Excel
- Understand failure mode shape analysis and thereafter to extract failure mode shapes from history record data and use this to optimise Planned Maintenance (PM) activities
- Understand the theory and application of reliability modelling
- Apply the theory of reliability modelling to a range of practical case studies, using the teaching version of an industry-standard reliability modelling software package
- Develop from first principles a practical and comprehensive reliability modelling and statistical analysis toolbox in Microsoft Excel, and use this to analyse numerous practical case studies
- Use reliability models to predict future spare parts requirements and the proportions of maintenance time that will be spent in reactive (breakdown) and proactive (PM/PPM) maintenance activities
- Explore the implementation of a Reliability Centred Maintenance approach as part of a modern maintenance management strategy, including a detailed cost-benefit analysis of a real application
Who Should Attend?
This course is intended for the plant managers, maintenance managers, engineers, supervisors and foremen, asset managers, maintenance & engineering consultants, project managers and those involved in maintenance and operations (M&O) in consultant, contractor or operating companies. The course is also beneficial to both technical and non-technical personnel employed in the activities that support the O&M sector.
Course Outlines:
Maintenance strategies and the power of historical data
- Fundamental approaches to maintenance
- Formulating a maintenance strategy
- The importance of maintenance history records
- Understanding plant performance
- An introduction to the statistical analysis of failure data
- The principles of failure data analysis
- Industry-standard measures of reliability (Availability, MTBF, MTTR, etc)
- Extensive hands-on experience
Statistical analysis of failure data
- Pareto analysis, rank order charts and standard deviation
- Linear regression models and determining model accuracy
- Failure mode analysis
- Interpreting failure mode shapes
- Extracting failure mode shapes from real data
- Optimizing PM activity using mode shape analysis
- Knowing when to use a breakdown maintenance approach
- Extensive hands-on experience
Reliability models and approaches to modeling
- The principles of RCM and reliability modeling
- Developing a reliability model
- Weibull statistics and the range of Weibull models (2 parameters, 3 parameters, maximum likelihood, maximum accuracy)
- The Weibull curve and plotting data on a Weibull scale
- Defining parameters: shape, scale, mean life, minimum life, characteristic life, standard deviation
- Model accuracy assessment (observed model accuracy and hypothesis rejection)
- Interpreting model results
- Confidence levels and Weibull critical values
- Key graphical functions:
- The reliability function: survival probability
- The cumulative distribution function
- The failure probability density function
- The failure rate function
- Extensive hands-on experience
Cost based maintenance and the basis of a reliability toolbox
- Converting reliability model data into cost-based maintenance decisions
- Optimizing PM activity based on cost and by using reliability predictions
- Calculating the cheapest PM interval for age-based replacement policies
- Graphing costs versus PM interval
- Predicting future failures
- Predicting spares utilization
- Development of the key components of a reliability toolbox
- Extensive hands-on experience
- Open discussion
The finalization of a comprehensive reliability toolbox in Excel
- The cost of maintenance convenience and making informed maintenance optimization decisions
- Incorporating real-world effects within reliability models
- Specifying the PM interval and understanding the implications of doing this
- Completing the reliability toolbox
- Graphing toolbox results
- Toolbox testing and comparison of results with best-of-breed modeling software
- Extensive hands-on experience
- Overall review of concepts learned and how they can be applied in practice